‘Terminator: Dark Fate’ Box Office Estimates Now Lower Than Projected
Last month, box office analysts were projecting thatTerminator: Dark Fatecould end up with a record opening weekend, hauling in somewhere in the $40-plus million range. Turns out those estimates were a bit…generous. Because now that the latestTerminatormovie has opened in advance previews, it looks like theDark Fatebox office is going to be a bit lower than projected.
What a difference a few weeks makes. In early October, Iwroteup a story aboutTerminator: Dark Fatetracking towards a $40-plus million opening weekend, which would’ve put it on track to break previous franchise record holder,Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, which opened at $44 million. Now, however, on the weekend of the movie’s release, analysts suggest it might not even hit $30 million.
THRsays that the film opened with $2.35 million in Thursday previews, which indicates it’s on track for a $28 million opening weekend. So what happened? Perhaps fatigue. Early reactions forDark Fatestarted off strong, but they also started rolling in on October 20, almost two full weeks before release. Whenever a film launches its early reactionsthatearly it can trip some folks up and cause confusion. Case in point: it already feels like the conversation aroundDark Fateis over, even though itjustopened.
Of course, that sort of logic only applies to film fans who obsess over this stuff. The average, casual moviegoer doesn’t pay attention to such things. Still, the reviews that eventually arrived for the film were mixed at best (it’s sitting at a just-barely-fresh 68% onRotten Tomatoesas of now). That could certainly deflate some excitement. Then you have to factor in the knowledge thatDark Fateis the latest entry in an altogether lopsided franchise. Most can agree thatTerminatorandTerminator 2: Judgement Dayare great movies. Classics, even. But everything after that? Not so much.
Perhaps the lesson here is that Hollywood should just stop makingTerminatorsequels. Then again, things could turn out differently after the weekend ends. MaybeDark Fatewill end up surpassing these now-adjusted expectations and be a bigger hit after all. Or, if you’re lucky enough to live in one of the very few places playingThe Irishmanin theaters this weekend, you should probably go see that instead.
